Decision by Committee (August 13, 2026)

  • There has been continued improvement and broadening of economic momentum alongside robust earnings growth despite the ongoing geopolitical risks tied to the developments in the Middle East and more general economic policy uncertainty.
  • While the AMC acknowledges that these factors remain significant risks to the outlook and are likely to keep markets vulnerable to bouts of volatility, near-term baseline expectations are for global economic momentum to remain on solid footing, which supports continued solid earnings growth.
  • The AMC remains comfortable with the overall risk exposures in its model portfolio allocations and has opted to leave the asset mix unchanged. The portfolios remain overweight Equity with a continued bias toward Global quality-focused strategies. Fixed Income allocations maintain below benchmark duration.

The two months since the Asset Mix Committee (AMC) last formally met in June have seen continued improvement and broadening of economic momentum alongside robust earnings growth despite the ongoing geopolitical risks tied to developments in the Middle East and more general economic policy uncertainty.

Accordingly, this backdrop has proven supportive of equity market performance and benefitted the AMC’s tactical overweight to the asset class.

The rise in energy prices following the end of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran in mid-June, combined with growing indications of increasing supply chain pressures globally related to technology hardware, has put upward pressure on market rates.

These developments have benefitted the AMC’s skew in favour of shorter duration securities in Fixed Income allocations.

While the AMC acknowledges they remain significant risks to the outlook — including prolonged upward pressure on energy prices in the absence of a sustained resolution to the conflict in the Middle East spilling into prices more broadly and forcing a central response; failure of trade negotiations between the U.S., Canada and Mexico resulting in higher tariffs that stifle activity; broader U.S. policy uncertainty in the lead up to the midterm elections; disappointment with returns on investment in artificial intelligence (AI) paring expectations of further capital expenditure and driving a rerating of economic and earnings growth prospects — that are likely to keep markets vulnerable to bouts of volatility, near-term baseline expectations are for global economic momentum to remain on solid footing that supports continued solid earnings growth.

Consumers’ foundation remains strong, labour markets are holding up quite well, and business capital spending plans point to continued expenditure while governments are expected to ramp up investment in infrastructure and national defense.

The AMC noted that strong earnings growth has outpaced market performance, which has actually resulted in valuation multiples compressing over the last two months.

With the absence of a clear likely catalyst to upset investor sentiment, this backdrop would provide a constructive outlook for stocks. The AMC is comfortable with its risk exposures and supports maintaining its overweight allocation to both Canadian and Global Equity.

While measures of underlying inflation have remained well-behaved and reduced the likelihood of near-term monetary policy tightening, this backdrop, however, suggests that the balance of risks for inflation and rates remains tilted to the upside. As such, the AMC continues to favour an underweight allocation to Fixed Income as well as a continued preference to maintain below-benchmark duration within the asset class’s allocations.

Overall, the AMC remains comfortable with the overall risk exposures and has opted to leave the asset mix unchanged. The overall strategic allocation remains overweight Equity with a continued bias toward Global quality-focused strategies. Fixed Income allocations maintain a tilt to credit and below-benchmark duration.

The AMC will continue to monitor economic and market developments closely and stands ready to tactically exploit opportunities that may present themselves.

Asset Class Returns (as at August 12, 2026)

Asset Class Representative Index QTD 1 Yr
Canadian Equity S&P/TSX Composite Index 5.35 34.03
Global Equity MSCI World Index (net CAD) 1.94 22.79
Fixed Income FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index -1.64 2.18
Cash FTSE Canada 91 Day T-Bill Index 0.27 2.43

 

Asset Mix Committee Summary Views²

Growth Asset Allocation

Asset Class Strategic Allocation³ New Tactical Target⁴ Change from prior⁴
 Equity 70.0%  80.0% –
Canadian Equity 40.0%  42.9% –
Global Equity 30.0% 37.1% –
Fixed Income 25.0% 20.0% –
Cash 5.0% 0.0% –

 

Conservative Asset Allocation

Asset Class Strategic Allocation³ New Tactical Target⁴ Change from prior⁴
 Equity 30.0%  37.3% –
Canadian Equity 17.5%  20.1% –
Global Equity 12.5% 17.2% –
Fixed Income 65.0% 62.7% –
Cash 5.0% 0.0% –

 

 

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¹ Guardian Capital LP’s Asset Mix Committee(AMC) consists of investment professionals and asset class specialists, and is charged with overseeing the development and management of multi-asset investment portfolios, specifically addressing asset allocation and areas for advice or communication to such clients as it relates to the makeup of their portfolio.
² These Asset Allocations represent the Asset Mix Committee’s tactical views given their assessment of market conditions and performance expectations.
³ Benchmark=portfolio strategic asset allocation.
⁴ Figures may not add up due to rounding.

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Published: August 25, 2026