Decision by Committee (February 12, 2026)

  • The AMC¹ has greater confidence that growth remains on a positive track and inflation is well-behaved. As a result, the Committee remains comfortable with a bias toward Equity in its asset mix.
  • Allocations that had passively increased in Canadian Equity, due to relative performance, were reduced and redeployed to quality-growth-focused Global Equity.
  • In Fixed Income, the exposure to Canadian bonds was reduced, and the weight was reallocated to short-duration bonds and strategic income.
  • The AMC’s tactical target remains overweight Equity with a bias toward Global quality growth. Fixed Income allocations are concentrated in Canadian bonds.

Macroeconomic developments since the AMC last formally met in late November have generally been positive, suggesting a broadening out of economic growth momentum — on a regional basis as well as with respect to underlying segments of demand.

Consumers globally appear to remain on a solid footing with strong household balance sheets and still firm job markets supporting spending. Business spending has remained on an upswing, underpinned by investment in technology and infrastructure related to artificial intelligence (AI). Public-sector investment in infrastructure is set to strengthen as governments worldwide implement significant capital spending plans.

As well, though inflation remains above central bank targets, indicators show that underlying price pressures continue to gradually moderate and, generally, remain well behaved.

In terms of markets, interest rates have remained range-bound as the backdrop suggests limited impetus for central banks to ease policy in the near term. Yields appear likely to continue to trend sideways.

Equity markets have seen a bit of a rotation away from the AI-adjacent leaders in recent months, with performance broadening out beyond the narrowly concentrated gains that have characterized recent years.

Looking forward, while policy uncertainty is expected to remain elevated and there are risks to the outlook (namely potential disappointments related to AI and negative spillovers for capital spending and markets), the AMC views the base case to be positive and broadening growth momentum, elevated but well-behaved inflation, and generally stable interest rates.

Overall, the AMC feels more confident in the outlook for growth and inflation. This constructive backdrop would provide scope for the broadening of performance to continue, as returns could be increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than richer valuations — this would also prove beneficial for more active investment strategies.

The AMC feels comfortable maintaining the overweight to Equity in its asset mix. Within Equity, there was a preference among the AMC to add back to quality-growth-focused active allocations in Global allocations that had lost weight due to relative underperformance compared to Canadian Equity allocations in recent months — Canadian Equity allocations that had passively increased were reduced as a result, but remain above benchmark weights. In Fixed Income, the view that policy rates will generally hold steady suggests that performance is going to be driven by interest payments. While credit spreads are tight relative to their historic averages, there is support given the economic outlook, and it remains the case that incremental overall yields available on corporate credit are at levels that are compelling and support adding exposure to the asset class.

As well, the balance of risks in bond markets has shifted such that it is now viewed that there is more upside risk to rates than downside, as markets potentially price out the prospect of further rate cuts and weight the potential for rate hikes — this would favour reducing duration. The decision was made to reduce the allocation to Canadian bonds and initiate exposures to short-duration bonds and strategic income.

The AMC’s Tactical Targets remain overweight Equity with a bias toward Global quality growth allocations. Fixed Income allocations are tilted in favour of credit and have an above-benchmark yield and below-benchmark duration. The AMC will continue to monitor economic and market developments closely and stands ready to tactically exploit opportunities that may present themselves.

 

Asset Class Returns (as at February 12, 2026)

Asset Class Representative Index QTD 1 Yr
Canadian Equity S&P/TSX Composite Index 2.56 30.35
Global Equity MSCI World Index (net CAD) 1.18 13.12
Fixed Income FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index 1.45 3.62
Cash FTSE Canada 91 Day T-Bill Index 0.26 2.66

 

Asset Mix Committee Summary Views²

Growth Asset Allocation

Asset Class Strategic Allocation³ New Tactical Target⁴ Change from prior⁴
 Equity 70.0%  78.5% –
Canadian Equity 40.0%  42.0% -1.3
Global Equity 30.0% 36.6% +1.3
Fixed Income 25.0% 21.5% –
Cash 5.0% 0.0% –

 

Conservative Asset Allocation

Asset Class Strategic Allocation² New Tactical Target⁴ Change from prior⁴
 Equity 30.0%  35.3% –
Canadian Equity 17.5%  18.9% -1.0
Global Equity 12.5% 16.3% +1.0
Fixed Income 65.0% 64.8% –
Cash 5.0% 0.0% –

 

 

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¹ Guardian Capital LP’s Asset Mix Committee(AMC) consists of investment professionals and asset class specialists, and is charged with overseeing the development and management of multi-asset investment portfolios, specifically addressing asset allocation and areas for advice or communication to such clients as it relates to the makeup of their portfolio.
² These Asset Allocations represent the Asset Mix Committee’s tactical views given their assessment of market conditions and performance expectations.
³ Benchmark=portfolio strategic asset allocation.
⁴ Figures may not add up due to rounding.

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Published: March 2026