On Balance:
The Asset Mix Committee – June 2026

Decision by Committee (June 11, 2026)

• The dataflow remains generally positive, with economic growth momentum providing key support for corporate earnings, despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty tied to the war in Iran.
• Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk are likely to remain elevated and keep markets vulnerable to bouts of volatility; however, as long as the underlying drivers of economic and earnings growth remain broadly intact, the most likely scenario appears to be one in which markets continue to climb the wall of worry.
• Accordingly, the AMC remains comfortable with the overall risk exposures. The AMC’s guidance is for portfolios to remain overweight Equity with a bias toward Global quality growth strategies. Fixed Income allocations are recommended to maintain tilts toward shorter duration and corporate credit strategies.

The economic and market backdrop has not changed much since the Asset Mix Committee last formally met in April.

The dataflow remains generally positive, providing indications of generally sustained economic momentum supported by ongoing resiliency in consumer spending and an upswing in business investments in information technology, despite the heightened geopolitical uncertainty tied to the war in the Middle East.

Corporate earnings have been particularly strong, with the recent earnings season representing one of the best overall in recent history and providing a lift to risk assets despite uncertainties.

Headline inflation has moved higher in response to the sharp increase in energy prices, but measures of underlying price pressures are showing limited instances of broader second-round impacts.

While it is expected that a resolution to the war in Iran will be reached sooner rather than later, the likelihood is that supply-side pressures on commodities will have some staying power and create growing risks of inflation pressures rising throughout the supply chain.

A broadening out of price pressures is likely to result in some demand destruction as purchasing power ebbs — combined with the potential transitory nature of the price shock (prices are likely to decline with a resolution), this creates a dilemma for policymakers as efforts to tighten policy to combat inflation would exacerbate headwinds to growth. With that said, policymakers are increasingly shifting focus toward upside risks to inflation, and markets are pricing in the prospect of rate hikes for major central banks.

The AMC views that markets are being over-aggressive in their expectations for hiking, as there is generally limited appetite to tighten given the nature of this shock and the potential negative implications for growth (and resulting deflationary forces).

The expectation is that market rates will remain range-bound for the near-term, but there are upside risks given growing inflation concerns, which argues for keeping duration in fixed income allocations below benchmark.

For equities, while policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk are likely to remain elevated for the coming months and keep markets vulnerable to bouts of volatility, as long as the underlying drivers of economic and earnings growth remain broadly intact — the dataflow suggests they have so far — the most likely scenario appears to be one in which markets — that remain reasonably valued outside some richly valued pockets — continue to climb the wall of worry.

The return of narrow leadership in the market represents a cause for concern, as does the sustainability of profits tied to information technology investments — though the AMC does not see a near-term catalyst for the trends to shift.

Overall, the AMC remains comfortable with the overall risk exposures. The asset mix remains overweight Equity with a continued bias toward Global quality-focused strategies. Fixed Income allocations maintain a tilt to shorter duration credit and therefore carry a below-benchmark duration.

The AMC will continue to monitor economic and market developments closely and stands ready to tactically exploit opportunities that may present themselves.

Asset Class Returns (as at June 10, 2026)

Asset Mix Committee Summary Views²

Growth Asset Allocation

Conservative Asset Allocation

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¹ Guardian Capital LP’s Asset Mix Committee(AMC) consists of investment professionals and asset class specialists, and is charged with overseeing the development and management of multi-asset investment portfolios, specifically addressing asset allocation and areas for advice or communication to such clients as it relates to the makeup of their portfolio.
² These Asset Allocations represent the Asset Mix Committee’s tactical views given their assessment of market conditions and performance expectations.
³ Benchmark=portfolio strategic asset allocation.
⁴ Figures may not add up due to rounding.

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Published: June 19, 2026