Recap Bond markets continued their upward momentum in June, as cooperative inflation data (notwithstanding the surprise in the May Consumer […]
Recap
- Bond markets had their best month yet this year, with the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index posting a 2.37% return in July, as the Bank of Canada (BoC) continued on its path of easing monetary policy and lowered its policy rate 25bps from 4.75% to 4.50%. As well, the BoC adopted a notably more dovish tone that opens the door to a more rapid pace of rate cuts than previously assumed.
- Bond yields moved lower across all maturity terms along the yield curve in a steepening fashion, with yields on the shortend of the curve decreasing more than yields on the long-end.
- South of the border, the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee left rates unchanged at its July meeting but indicated that a cut could come as soon as its next meeting in September as its focus has shifted to the growth part of its mandate; cuing signs of a softening labour market.
- Bonds in the long-end of the yield curve (FTSE Canada Long Term Overall Bond Index, +3.10%) outperformed both bonds in the belly (FTSE Canada Mid-Term Overall Bond Index, +2.84%) and the short-end (FTSE Canada Short-Term Overall Bond Index, +1.54%) of the curve.
- Government bonds (FTSE Canada All Government Bond Index, +2.42%) outperformed corporate bonds (FTSE Canada All Corporate Bond Index, +2.23%), driven by provincial bonds carrying a higher duration.
- In corporate bonds, credit spreads on BBB-rated bonds were flat, while higher quality (A and AA) bonds slightly widened during the month. Bonds within the Infrastructure, Energy, and Communication sectors outperformed.
Source: Guardian Capital based on data for the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index from PC Bond, Bloomberg as at July 31, 2024
The Look Ahead
- The policy guidance in Canada suggests further interest rate accommodation is on the horizon as the balance of risks have shifted from inflation to employment, given the recent increase in the unemployment rate suggests the economy is running well below its capacity (i.e., actual growth is less than trend growth). Based on futures market pricing, the market is expecting three more rate cuts by the end of the year.
- From an interest rate term structure perspective, the market consensus is that the yield curve will continue to steepen as the BoC normalizes policy towards the neutral rate.
- From a credit perspective, while credit spreads remain relatively tight on a historical basis, catalysts for additional spread compression may be limited.
- In the short-term, fixed income returns generally, are likely to be driven by duration.
Positioning Opportunities
For investors with a shorter-term investment horizon that may be concerned about money market rates drifting lower, GuardBondsTM, our suite of Target Maturity Funds, provide attractive yields and offer the potential for greater tax efficiency because of the capital gains potential embedded in purchasing of discount bonds. Additionally, GuardBondsTM are able to provide daily liquidity to investors while keeping the gains they’ve earned to date, unlike non-redeemable GICs, which may penalize investors for early redemption.
For investors seeking absolute returns, higher cash flows, and less fluctuations to equity and bond markets, the Guardian Strategic Income Fund*, seeks to generate stable income while preserving capital with lower volatility by investing in a diverse portfolio that aims to provide a superior risk adjusted return profile across all market environments.
Source: Guardian Capital based on data for the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index from PC Bond, Bloomberg as at July 31, 2024 **Details of the Indexes used in the chart can be found on page 5.
Guardian Fixed Income Funds | Current Positioning
GuardBonds™ Investment Grade Bond Funds
- A suite of actively managed, defined maturity bond funds, that can be used to efficiently construct customized bond ladders.
- Mostly invested in Investment Grade bonds purchased at a discount, to take advantage of potential capital gains.2 Excellent GICs alternative, more liquid1 and tax efficient.2
Guardian Canadian Bond Fund
- Shorter duration profile relative to its benchmark, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index (6.72 vs. 7.22 years, respectively, as at July 31).
- Higher concentration in the 7-year rate and lower concentration in the 10-year and 20-year rates, relative to the benchmark.
- Overweight corporate bonds (Financials) and underweight government bonds (primarily Federal bonds).
Guardian Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund
- Slightly longer duration profile relative to its benchmark, the FTSE Canada Mid Term Corporate Bond Index (5.86 vs. 5.73 years, respectively, as at July 31).
- Higher concentration in the 10-year rate and lower concentration in the 5-year and 7-year rates, relative to the benchmark.
- Overweight bonds within the Real Estate sector and underweight bonds within the Infrastructure sector.
Guardian Strategic Income Fund (Alternative Fund)*
- Profit taking in select holdings within the Industrial and Financial sectors (i.e., GrafTech Global Enterprises Inc. and Freedom Mortgage Corp.) while opportunistically adding to existing positions within the Energy sector. The portfolio is focused on reducing its risk exposure, by adding hedges and increasing overall portfolio quality.
- Although defaults on high yield bond issues have ticked up year-to-date, their proportion in the market is well within expectations for this year and is concentrated in a couple of highly levered sectors (e.g. Technology, Media, and Telecom) . The risk-reward trade-off for high-yield more broadly and corporate hybrid bonds remains intact (albeit a bit less than earlier this year) given generally healthy fundamentals, in addition to the relatively elevated levels of absolute yields. The Manager continues to maintain this focus for companies held in the Fund’s portfolio.
[1] Each GuardBonds fund, despite having a specified maturity date, is fully liquid (intra-day liquidity on the ETF versions, daily liquidity on the mutual fund versions). GICs – even those of the redeemable variety – do not offer the same option for liquidity should it be needed.
[2] Each GuardBonds™ fund prioritizes holding bonds trading at a discount with the intention of holding them until maturity. When a discount bond matures at par value, the price appreciation is treated as a capital gain. Total return on a GuardBonds™ fund is expected to consist of bond interest income and capital gains. GICs, on the other hand, are always fully taxed as interest income.
Fund Details
Source: Guardian Capital based on data from PC Bond, Bloomberg as at July 31, 2024
The Duration, Yield to Maturity, Coupon, Average Price and Average Quality shown are based on the weighted average of the securities held in the respective Funds’ portfolio, and for the comparative benchmarks they are based on the weighted average of the Index constituents.
YTM: The Yield to Maturity (YTM) shown is the current yield-to-maturity, gross of fees, based on underlying portfolio holdings as at the date indicated. These yields will fluctuate regularly. YTM represents the expected annual rate of return earned on a bond under the assumption that the debt security is held until maturity.
†Note: For the T-Bill Funds, the YTM shown is the Yield to Maturity at Cost or YTM (at Cost), which is the weighted average YTM (at Cost) of each of the underlying T-Bill securities in the portfolio, net of cash. YTM (at Cost) means the percentage rate of return paid if the T-Bill security is held to its maturity date from the original time of purchase. The calculation is based on the coupon rate, length of time to maturity, and original price of the underlying T-Bill securities. This is not the yield, distribution rate or performance return of the Fund and is not intended to represent the distribution or return experience of any unitholder. It is only intended to give investors an idea a particular portfolio characteristic of the underlying securities held in the Fund’s portfolio.
Current Yield: The Current Yield is an annualized historical yield based on actual net income of the Fund for the seven-day period ended on the date specified and does not represent an actual one-year return.
For more information on the financial terms used in this document, please refer to the Glossary of Financial Terms on our website at: https://www.guardiancapital.com/investmentsolutions/glossary–of–terms/
*The Guardian Strategic Income Fund is an alternative mutual fund. It is permitted to invest in asset classes or use investment strategies that are not permitted for other types of mutual funds. The specific strategies that differentiate this Fund from other types of mutual funds include borrowing cash, engaging in short selling and investing in specified derivatives. While these strategies will be used in accordance with the Fund’s objectives and strategies, during certain market conditions they may accelerate the pace at which your investment changes in value. This Fund also pays the Manager a Performance Fee equal to 15% of the amount by which the Investment Performance of the applicable series of Units exceeds the aggregate of the High Water Mark and the cumulative Hurdle Amount during the Performance Period. Please refer to the Fund’s prospectus for additional details. Statistics only reflect bond segment.
**Fixed Income Risk-for-Yield Spectrum chart
91 Day T-Bill: FTSE Canada 91 Day T-Bill Index, which tracks Canadian Treasury Bills with maturities of 91 days.
1-3yr Government Bond: FTSE Canada 1-3 Government Bond Index, which tracks Government of Canada Bonds with maturities of 1-3 years.
3-5yr Government Bond: FTSE Canada 3-5 Government Bond Index, which tracks Government of Canada Bonds with maturities of 3-5 years.
5-7yr Government Bond: FTSE Canada 5-7 Government Bond Index, which tracks Government of Canada Bonds with maturities of 5-7 years.
7-10yr Government Bond: FTSE Canada 7-10 Government Bond Index, tracks Government of Canada Bonds with maturities of 7-10 years.
Canada Aggregate: FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index:, which tracks all Canadian Bonds.
Canada Corporate: FTSE Canada All Corporate Bond Index, which tracks corporate bonds within Canada. US High Yield: ICE BofA US High Yield Index, which tracks high-yield bonds within the US.
Disclaimer
This commentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, accounting, tax advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. It shall under no circumstances be considered an offer or solicitation to deal in any product or security mentioned herein. It is only intended for the audience to whom it has been distributed and may not be reproduced or redistributed without the consent of Guardian Capital LP. This information is not intended for distribution into any jurisdiction where such distribution is restricted by law or regulation.
Please read the prospectus, Fund Facts or ETF Facts before investing. Important information, including a summary of the risks, about each Fund is contained in its respective offering documents. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund and exchange traded fund (ETF) investments. You will usually pay brokerage fees to your dealer if you purchase or sell units of an ETF a stock exchange. If the units are purchased or sold a stock exchange , investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units of the ETF and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. For ETF Units and mutual funds other than money market funds, unit values change frequently. For money market mutual fund Units, there can be no assurances that these mutual fund Units will be able to maintain their net asset value per unit at a constant amount or that the full amount of your investment in the fund will be returned to you. Mutual fund and ETF securities, including money market funds, are not covered by the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation or by any other government deposit insurer. Mutual funds and ETFs are not guaranteed, and past performance may not be repeated.
The opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. Reliance upon this information is at the sole discretion of the reader. This document includes information concerning financial markets that was developed at a particular point in time. This information is subject to change at any time, without notice, and without update. This commentary may also include forward looking statements concerning anticipated results, circumstances, and expectations regarding future events. Forward-looking statements require assumptions to be made and are, therefore, subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Investing involves risk. Equity markets are volatile and will increase and decrease in response to economic, political, regulatory and other developments. Investments in foreign securities involve certain risks that differ from the risks of investing in domestic securities. Adverse political, economic, social or other conditions in a foreign country may make the stocks of that country difficult or impossible to sell. It is more difficult to obtain reliable information about some foreign securities. The costs of investing in some foreign markets may be higher than investing in domestic markets. Investments in foreign securities also are subject to currency fluctuations. The risks and potential rewards are usually greater for small companies and companies located in emerging markets. Bond markets and fixed-income securities are sensitive to interest rate movements. Inflation, credit and default risks are all associated with fixed income securities. Diversification may not protect against market risk and loss of principal may result. Certain information contained in this document has been obtained from external parties which we believe to be reliable, however we cannot guarantee its accuracy.
Guardian Capital LP is the Manager of the Guardian Capital mutual funds and ETFs. Guardian Capital LP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Guardian Capital Group Limited, a publicly traded firm, the shares of which are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. For further information on Guardian Capital LP or its affiliates, please visit www.guardiancapital.com. All trademarks, registered and unregistered, are owned by Guardian Capital Group Limited and are used under license.
Date published: August 15, 2024