Summary
- One year ago – March 11, 2020, the WHO officially declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, and the world changed.
- Within 48 hours, travel was suspended in different parts of the world, professional sports leagues shut down, and the US declared a national state of emergency.
- Schools, public spaces and businesses would close shortly afterwards, as lockdowns became the norm around the world.
- These initial lockdowns hit economies hard, but the latest round appear to be having a comparably modest effect on activity.
- A likely significant factor in this surprising strength has been government fiscal aid worldwide.
- Yet it is not sustainable for governments to take a substantial share of their economies onto their balance sheet forever.
- Projections now suggest more than half of the world’s population will be inoculated fairly soon.
- The combination of lower infection numbers and economic rebounds means the next 12 months appear significantly better than the last 12.
- There is still considerable lost ground to recover, and policymakers are likely to continue to err on the side of caution until this is well behind us.
David Onyett-Jeffries
Vice President, Multi Asset Class Solutions
Guardian Capital LP (GCLP)
Want to read more?
Download the Full Commentary
This commentary is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, accounting, tax advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security or be considered an offer or solicitation to deal in any product or security mentioned herein. It is only intended for the audience to whom it has been distributed and may not be reproduced or redistributed without the consent of Guardian Capital LP. This information is not intended for distribution into any jurisdiction where such distribution is restricted by law or regulation. The opinions expressed are as of the published date and are subject to change without notice. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. Reliance upon this information is at the sole discretion of the reader. This document includes information concerning financial markets that was developed at a particular point in time. This information is subject to change at any time, without notice, and without update. This commentary may also include forward looking statements concerning anticipated results, circumstances, and expectations regarding future events. Forwardlooking statements require assumptions to be made and are, therefore, subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that predictions and other forward looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Investing involves risk. Equity markets are volatile and will increase and decrease in response to economic, political, regulatory and other developments. The risks and potential rewards are usually greater for small companies and companies located in emerging markets. Bond markets and fixed-income securities are sensitive to interest rate movements. Inflation, credit and default risks are all associated with fixed income securities. Diversification may not protect against market risk and loss of principal may result. Index returns are for information purposes only and do not represent actual strategy or fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect the impact of management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Certain information contained in this document has been obtained from external parties which we believe to be reliable, however we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Guardian Capital LP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Guardian Capital Group Limited which is a publicly traded firm listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. For further information on Guardian Capital LP, and its affiliates, please visit www. guardiancapital.com.