In our Fall Economic Outlook, we commented that while COVID-19 and the resurgence of its spread presented a clear and […]
- One year ago – March 11, 2020, the WHO officially declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, and the world changed.
- Within 48 hours, travel was suspended in different parts of the world, professional sports leagues shut down, and the US declared a national state of emergency.
- Schools, public spaces and businesses would close shortly afterwards, as lockdowns became the norm around the world.
- These initial lockdowns hit economies hard, but the latest round appear to be having a comparably modest effect on activity.
- A likely significant factor in this surprising strength has been government fiscal aid worldwide.
- Yet it is not sustainable for governments to take a substantial share of their economies onto their balance sheet forever.
- Projections now suggest more than half of the world’s population will be inoculated fairly soon.
- The combination of lower infection numbers and economic rebounds means the next 12 months appear significantly better than the last 12.
- There is still considerable lost ground to recover, and policymakers are likely to continue to err on the side of caution until this is well behind us.
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